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Analytica

Off-market estimate spread

An automated estimate is far tighter on a listed home than on one that is not. This takes the figure showing on the portal and returns the band Zillow's own accuracy page puts around it.

Before the listing appointment

Your seller already has a number, and it came from the least accurate version of it

An automated estimate is far tighter on a home that is already listed than on one that is not. Sellers are looking at the off-market figure, which is the wide one.
$400,000
±$28,800

is the published median error on an off-market home

Half of homes land outside $371,200 to $428,800. That is the number your seller has already decided is the truth.

$400,000 × 7.20% median off-market error

Zillow reports roughly 1.74% median error on-market and 7.20% off-market; Redfin reports 1.93% and 7.44%. Median means half of homes are further out than this, not that this is the worst case.

We do not build valuation models and we are not arguing the estimate is wrong. The argument is narrower: the portal publishes its own accuracy, almost nobody reads it, and the width of that band on a single house is usually larger than the commission being negotiated over. How to use it before a listing appointment is in the Zestimate post.

The number is the easy part. The follow-up is the work.

A seller who says they will think about it goes back to the same number. We build the follow-up that keeps the band in front of them and stops the moment they reply.

See what we build for real estate